Reliable new research(*) has pointed to the answer to the perennial footballing conundrum of what it actually takes to score goals.
Earlier research has focussed on the actual act of scoring, but a new theory is based on the idea of ‘Disruptions’.
A ‘Disruption’ is defined as any event that disrupts the organisation of the defending team. It is clear that all goals are the result of these events. A ‘worldy’ strike from 30 yards out can be seen as one Disruption, whereas a ‘scruffy’ goal, where the ball pings around the penalty area for several seconds is the result of multiple Disruptions to the defensive unit.
It is an obvious conclusion of the research that the more Disruptions an attacking team can generate the more likely that a goal is to result. But how many disruptions are needed for a goal? This is where the research becomes interesting, because it leads to an irrefutable conclusion about why Wrexham have failed to score sufficient goals this season, and how we can do better next season.
Unsurprisingly ‘worldy’ goals do not figure highly in the statistics. 90% of goals are scored after 2-5 Disruptions. To give an example; Dean Keates might make an unexpected slide-rule pass(1), Rob Ogleby races onto the pass and wrong foots a defender(2), Ogleby makes a simple pass to Bishop who cleverly slots the ball under the keeper(3).
The nature of the Disruption appears to have no effect on success, which explains why unappealing lumping of the ball to big strikers can be equally as effective as attractive clever passing. The crucial element is the number of Disruptions created in succession.
It may seem obvious on reflection, but if an attacking team fails to disrupt an organised defence, in whatever way they do this, then goals will not ensue. On Saturday all three goals were the result of chains of disruptions, the penalty goal was quite a long chain.
Wrexham’s attack this season has lacked disruptive elements, such as pace, aerial threat, dribbling skills, and Wrexham’s defence and midfield have failed to provide sufficiently disruptive passing to aid attacks (unverified statistics suggest an even split between these failings, not any specific failing). In almost all areas of attack we have failed to produce sufficiently long sequences of disruption to score goals. The good news is that mad spending on highly skilled attackers is not necessarily the solution. The solution is to focus on sequences of Disruptions and create more disruption in general. The solution might be to sign Drewe Broughton!!